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	<title>Troy&#039;s Scratchpad</title>
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		<title>Troy&#039;s Scratchpad</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com</link>
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		<item>
		<title>Our comment on Humlum et al. in press at Global and Planetary Change</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/our-comment-on-humlum-et-al-in-press-at-global-and-planetary-change/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/our-comment-on-humlum-et-al-in-press-at-global-and-planetary-change/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 14:58:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=1087</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000891 (actually, it has been for a while, but I haven&#8217;t had much time for blogging lately!).   For those of you who have already read this blog post, or the one at RealClimate by Rasmus, the contents should not be much of a shock.  Sadly, the article is pay-walled, but if [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=1087&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/our-comment-on-humlum-et-al-in-press-at-global-and-planetary-change/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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		<title>Sensitivity / CMIP5 comparison paper now in press at Climate Dynamics</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/04/16/sensitivity-cmip5-comparison-paper-now-in-press-at-climate-dynamics/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/04/16/sensitivity-cmip5-comparison-paper-now-in-press-at-climate-dynamics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Apr 2013 03:24:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=1091</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is available online and titled “Observational Estimate of Climate Sensitivity from Changes in the Rate of Ocean Heat Uptake and Comparison to CMIP5 Models&#8221;.  Apparently Nic Lewis&#8217;s paper beat mine to online release by a day, and though my estimated confidence interval for equilibrium sensitivity is significantly wider, the median sensitivity in my paper [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=1091&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/04/16/sensitivity-cmip5-comparison-paper-now-in-press-at-climate-dynamics/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>20</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Figure3</media:title>
		</media:content>

		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/figure5_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Figure5</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Could the multiple regression approach detect a recent pause in global warming? Part 3.</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/23/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-3/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/23/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Feb 2013 19:29:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=1080</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Part 1 Part 2 In the first two parts of this series, I demonstrated how multiple regression methods that assume an underlying linear &#34;signal&#34; are unable to properly reconstruct a pause in surface temperature warming when attempting to remove the volcanic, solar, and ENSO components from my simple energy balance model.&#160; That is, for an [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=1080&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/23/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-3/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>27</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">VolcanicPlusSolar</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Could the multiple regression approach detect a recent pause in global warming?  Part 2.</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/20/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-2/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/20/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2013 04:36:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=1067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Previously, I posted on the multiple regression method – in particular, the method employed in Foster and&#160; Rahmstorf (2011) – and how, when attempting to decompose the temperature evolution of my simple energy balance model into the various components (signal, ENSO, solar, and volcanic), this method encountered two large issues: 1) It did not adequately [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=1067&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/20/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming-part-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>9</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/scenario1reconstruction_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Scenario1Reconstruction</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/scenario2reconstruction_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Scenario2Reconstruction</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/solar_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Solar</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/volcanic_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Volcanic</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Our paper on UHI in USHCN is now published</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/13/our-paper-on-uhi-in-ushcn-is-now-published/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/13/our-paper-on-uhi-in-ushcn-is-now-published/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Feb 2013 00:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As you know, my first interest and the bulk of the early articles for this blog dealt with the question of the urban heat island (UHI) influence on U.S. historical temperatures.&#160; Our paper is now available (pre-print version) on this topic, and Zeke (the lead author of the paper and the one who wrangled everyone [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=908&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/02/13/our-paper-on-uhi-in-ushcn-is-now-published/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
		</media:content>

		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/imperpercentsensitivity1895-2010_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">imperPercentSensitivity1895-2010</media:title>
		</media:content>

		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/imperpercentsensitivity1960-2010_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">imperPercentSensitivity1960-2010</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/alltemperatures_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">allTemperatures</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/allminusruraladjusted_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">allMinusRuralAdjusted</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Could the multiple regression approach detect a recent pause in global warming?</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Jan 2013 01:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=1033</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Note that by “pause in global warming” I am specifically referring to a near-halt in the underlying low-frequency signal of surface temperatures (not ocean heat content), a signal not influenced by the typical “exogenous factors” of ENSO, volcanoes, or solar activity.&#160; This has been recently attempted in Foster and Rahmstorf (2011), from which they conclude [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=1033&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2013/01/25/could-the-multiple-regression-approach-detect-a-recent-pause-in-global-warming/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>19</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">equation</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fig1-scenario1basic_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Fig1-Scenario1Basic</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fig2-scenario2basic_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Fig2-Scenario2Basic</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fig3-scenario1reconstruction_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Fig3-Scenario1Reconstruction</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fig4-scenario2reconstruction_thumb1.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Fig4-Scenario2Reconstruction</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">Fig5-componentInfluence</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/fig6-gfdl-esm2mvolconly_thumb1.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Fig6-GFDL-ESM2MVolcOnly</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Climate Sensitivity, the Wall Street Journal, and Media Matters</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/12/22/climate-sensitivity-the-wall-street-journal-and-media-matters/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/12/22/climate-sensitivity-the-wall-street-journal-and-media-matters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Dec 2012 16:48:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=1028</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wanted to comment a bit on the recent Wall Street Journal article by Matt Ridley (&#34;The scientists at the IPCC next year have to choose whether they will admit&#8230;that the observational evidence now points toward lukewarm temperature change with no net harm.&#34;) and the response from Media Matters (&#34;Ridley is just plain wrong to [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=1028&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/12/22/climate-sensitivity-the-wall-street-journal-and-media-matters/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
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	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Changes in feedback strength with time: a look at the 1pct2xCO2 GFDL CM2.1 experiment</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/changes-in-feedback-strength-with-time-a-look-at-the-1pct2xco2-gfdl-cm2-1-experiment/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/changes-in-feedback-strength-with-time-a-look-at-the-1pct2xco2-gfdl-cm2-1-experiment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Nov 2012 03:11:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=999</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this half-baked post, I want to look a bit more at the issue of how the radiative response (λ) in our familiar equation (ΔN = ΔF + λ*ΔT) changes as we progress through the 1% CO2 increase per year to doubling experiment in GFDL CM2.1.&#160; As we&#8217;ve discussed before, this issue makes it extremely [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=999&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/changes-in-feedback-strength-with-time-a-look-at-the-1pct2xco2-gfdl-cm2-1-experiment/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
		</media:content>

		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/qvst_thumb1.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">QvsT</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/rrlocalbylatitude_thumb2.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">RRLocalByLatitude</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">TByLatitude</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">RRGlobalByLatitude</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">NHvsSH</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>CMIP5 Effective Sensitivity vs. Radiative Response in Last 40 Years</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/cmip5-effective-sensitivity-vs-radiative-response-in-last-40-years/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/cmip5-effective-sensitivity-vs-radiative-response-in-last-40-years/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2012 18:31:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://troyca.wordpress.com/?p=972</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post forms part 2 of the series I started in the last post, which focused on using the energy balance over the period of 0-2000m OHC data to estimate sensitivity.&#160; As you recall, I noted that using the radiative response over this shorter period actually overestimated temperature sensitivity in the GISS-ER and GFDL CM2.1 [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=972&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/cmip5-effective-sensitivity-vs-radiative-response-in-last-40-years/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">troyca</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/effectivesensitivityrcp45_thumb.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">EffectiveSensitivityRCP45</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">Effective Sensitivity Table</media:title>
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		<media:content url="http://troyca.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/radiativeresponse_thumb1.png" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">RadiativeResponse</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">EffSensVsRadResponse1</media:title>
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			<media:title type="html">EffSensVsRadResponse2</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Estimating Sensitivity from 0-2000m OHC and Surface Temperatures</title>
		<link>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/estimating-sensitivity-from-0-2000m-ohc-and-surface-temperatures/</link>
		<comments>http://troyca.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/estimating-sensitivity-from-0-2000m-ohc-and-surface-temperatures/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2012 02:44:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>troyca</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[1. Introduction This post should be the first in a series covering how we might derive an &#34;empirical&#34; estimate for climate sensitivity from ocean heat content (OHC) and surface temperature changes.&#160; I’ve touched on this topic a few times in previous posts, but my goal for this one is to have it be a more [&#8230;]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=troyca.wordpress.com&#038;blog=15060924&#038;post=942&#038;subd=troyca&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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