For a bit of fun, and now that Nov 15th has reported its daily anomaly at the AMSU website, I’d thought I’d look over the chances of my “system” being right. (Keep in mind it’s really a system for the average Aqua Ch5 daily anomalies for the month, not necessarily what UAH reports). This system simply takes the daily anomalies for SST from 112 days earlier and multiplies them by 1.57 to try and get the Aqua daily anomalies.
State of the Prediction: Unlikely.
My bet was on .118 C for the monthly anomaly. The average of the daily anomalies for Nov 1 – Nov 15 so far is .301 C*. This means that the remaining 15 days must average (-0.065 C) for me to win. That is, the end of November must spend a good deal of time in negative territory.
*Note: Nov 11, 12, & 13 are all missing, so I estimated their values based on a straight line between the two closest days. So since Nov 10 = 252.68 K and Nov 14 = 252.424 K, the values I estimated are 252.616, 252.552, and 252.488.
Updated Graphs of Aqua vs. offset SST
Two things might save my guess here: 1) The temperature has been rapidly dropping over the past 8 days. As of Nov 15th, the daily anomaly was only 0.153 C (still a ways above what I need it to be). And 2) the baseline temperature flattens out in the 2nd half of Nov.
The average temperature drop over the past 8 days is -.05 C per day. If the temperature continues to drop at this rate for 6 more days (a huge IF) before flattening out, then we’ll drop into ~-0.1 C anomaly range for the remaining third of the month, and my guess will be landing pretty close.
Otherwise, and the scenario that is far more likely, is that my “system” will not be fail-proof. Oh well.